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Forecast Discussion for FWD NWS Office
FXUS64 KFWD 211155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A 40 knot low level jet will continue to bring stratus northward.
MVFR ceilings will prevail at all TAF sites with some temporary
lifting above 3000 ft through the morning hours. Ceilings will
begin to lift by midday but should not scatter out until a dryline
arrives late in the afternoon, generally after 21Z. Showers will
begin to develop just ahead of the dryline this afternoon but
storms should not become well organized until the dryline is east
of the TAF sites. Therefore, we have decided to just keep showers
in the vicinity mentioned for much of the afternoon at all sites.
It should be noted that DAL and ACT will have the best chances of
seeing a thunderstorm late afternoon/early evening, but still feel
that chances will be too low to include.

Once the dryline passes, ceilings will quickly clear out and
remain clear overnight.

Southerly winds will slowly veer to southwest through the day at
speeds between 13 and 18 knots along with some gusts near 30
knots. By mid evening, the wind will become more westerly then
northwest overnight. Wind speeds tonight will remain in the 13 to
18 knot range along with some higher gusts.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 435 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/
An upper trough will move east from the Four Corners region today
and reach the Central Plains by this evening. Strong low level
warm air advection will continue over the region today ahead of
this system which will result in warm, breezy and humid conditions
with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind speeds
will approach wind advisory criteria this afternoon across the
central and western zones but only for a brief time.

Some light showers will be possible this morning as large scale
upward vertical motion slowly increases, but most locations will
not see any measurable rainfall through midday. More vigorous
large scale lift and the arrival of a dryline will bring better
precipitation chances this afternoon. All models (including the
high res solutions) continue to indicate that a somewhat organized
line of storms will develop on the dryline mid to late afternoon
just to the east of the I-35 corridor. This line is progged to
intensify as it moves east into slightly more moist and unstable
air. There is still a potential for some strong to severe storms
due to ample wind shear and sufficient moisture but a limiting
factor will be meager instability. There is at least some
potential for an isolated supercell or two to develop ahead of the
main line of storms across the southeast zones late this
afternoon with a low tornado potential. The more likely mode of
convection will be a thin squall line with straight line winds as
the primary hazard. Even though we will have high PoPs across the
east, expected rainfall will be low (generally < 1/4 inch) since
the squall line will be thin and fast moving.

All storms will move east during the evening and should exit the
CWA before midnight as a cold front overtakes the dryline.

There will still be a high wildfire threat this afternoon/early
evening across the western zones due to the dry, windy and warm
conditions expected behind the dryline. Therefore, we will keep a
Red Flag Warning in place along and west of a line from Jacksboro
to Stephenville from 1 PM until 9 PM. Locations just to the west
of the warning area will see an elevated threat for grass fires
this afternoon, but minimum relative humdities should be generally
above 30 percent and winds speeds will be slightly lower.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 435 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/
/Monday through Saturday/

Breezy conditions will continue on Monday in the wake of a Pacific
cold front. The deepening cyclone and surface cyclogenesis in the
Central Plains should intensify the flow, which should exceed
40kts at 925mb early Monday morning. After daylight, some of this
momentum will reach the surface, and sustained speeds at the
surface may approach wind advisory criteria from late morning
through mid-afternoon. Despite a chilly start to the day and the
brisk winds, the downslope component to the wind may push
temperatures to near 60F by midday. Veering winds Monday
afternoon will gradually enhance the cold advection and should
cap high temperatures near seasonal normals.

Though maritime by definition, these Pacific air masses typically
go through a thorough dessication as they pass over the high
terrain of the Southwest. This is no exception, and dew points
will likely fall into the teens Monday afternoon in our western
zones. With little chance for significant rainfall today, the
parched vegetation in our west will remain conducive to fire
initiation. Although the cooler temperatures may somewhat
mitigate the fire weather concerns, relative humidity values
dipping below 20 percent will enhance the potential for fire
initiation, and the gusty winds will promote the spread of any
wildfires that do develop. As a result, we have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for Monday afternoon for those areas along and west
of a line from Comanche to Glen Rose to Nocona. Elsewhere,
Sunday`s rainfall may preclude fire weather issues, but everyone
across North and Central Texas should remain vigilant about fire
usage. Avoid open flames near dry vegetation, and assure all coals
and embers are fully extinguished.

Both Monday and Tuesday night, winds will be light with low
humidity and mostly clear skies. In low-lying and/or outlying
areas, freezing temperatures are likely both Tuesday and
Wednesday morning. Significant warm advection won`t ensue until
late in the week, and the warming trend will be slow.

As a longwave trough makes landfall on the West Coast, the flow
will back. Considerable cloudiness will prevent temperatures from
exceeding the 60s on Friday, but deep moist advection in
destabilizing southwest flow aloft will result in some showers
and isolated thunderstorms in advance of the next cold front.
Unsurprisingly several days out, there is some disparity in the
timing of the front, but the GFS/CMC consensus is for a Saturday
morning FROPA. This would bring an end to the rain chances and
result in a breezy and seasonally cool weekend.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  44  60  35  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
Waco                72  42  62  31  63 /  50  20   0   0   0
Paris               68  42  57  34  58 /  70  70   0   0   0
Denton              71  40  59  31  59 /  30   5   0   0   0
McKinney            69  42  59  32  59 /  40  20   0   0   0
Dallas              70  44  59  37  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
Terrell             71  43  59  34  59 /  60  30   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  43  61  35  62 /  60  40   0   0   0
Temple              71  41  63  32  63 /  50  20   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  39  60  30  62 /  10   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST this
evening for TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141.

Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for TXZ091-100>102-115>117-